Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.351 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Alex Cobb.
0.346 — Miguel Andujar batting against Alex Cobb.
0.333 — Gleyber Torres batting against Alex Cobb.
0.326 — Austin Romine batting against Alex Cobb.
0.319 — Jose Altuve batting against Rick Porcello.
0.314 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Doug Fister.
0.311 — Didi Gregorius batting against Alex Cobb.
0.311 — Matt Kemp batting against Chad Bettis.
0.310 — Aaron Judge batting against Alex Cobb.
0.307 — Jon Jay batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.304 — Jose Abreu batting against Brent Suter.
0.301 — Giancarlo Stanton batting against Alex Cobb.
0.299 — Brett Gardner batting against Alex Cobb.
0.298 — Whit Merrifield batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.291 — Greg Bird batting against Alex Cobb.
0.291 — Albert Almora batting against Steven Matz.
0.289 — Neil Walker batting against Alex Cobb.
0.289 — Aaron Hicks batting against Alex Cobb.
0.288 — Tyler Austin batting against Alex Cobb.
0.288 — Nick Castellanos batting against Aaron Sanchez.
0.287 — Michael Moustakas batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.287 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Rick Porcello.
0.283 — Carlos Sanchez batting against Brent Suter.
0.282 — Scooter Gennett batting against Tyson Ross.
0.280 — Michael Brantley batting against Kyle Gibson.

Gary Sanchez appears to be the only Yankees regular who doesn’t make the list against Alex Cobb. Cobb currently owns a .356/.392/.609 opponents slash line. Torreyes is at the top, but he seldom starts. The rookies Andujar and Torres look like good picks today.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.319, 0.760 — Jose Altuve batting against Rick Porcello.
0.351, 0.746 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Alex Cobb.
0.311, 0.739 — Matt Kemp batting against Chad Bettis.
0.314, 0.726 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Doug Fister.
0.291, 0.725 — Albert Almora batting against Steven Matz.
0.280, 0.723 — Michael Brantley batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.307, 0.723 — Jon Jay batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.288, 0.723 — Nick Castellanos batting against Aaron Sanchez.
0.346, 0.723 — Miguel Andujar batting against Alex Cobb.
0.282, 0.722 — Scooter Gennett batting against Tyson Ross.
0.304, 0.722 — Jose Abreu batting against Brent Suter.
0.255, 0.720 — Jean Segura batting against Blake Snell.
0.287, 0.714 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Rick Porcello.
0.298, 0.713 — Whit Merrifield batting against Daniel Gossett.
0.265, 0.708 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.333, 0.707 — Gleyber Torres batting against Alex Cobb.
0.277, 0.704 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.261, 0.703 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Alex Wood.
0.269, 0.702 — Corey Dickerson batting against Michael Wacha.
0.266, 0.702 — Nolan Arenado batting against Alex Wood.
0.274, 0.701 — Wilson Ramos batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.266, 0.700 — Eddie Rosario batting against Michael Clevinger.
0.276, 0.700 — Matt M Duffy batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.311, 0.699 — Didi Gregorius batting against Alex Cobb.
0.256, 0.698 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Alex Wood.
0.262, 0.698 — Starling Marte batting against Michael Wacha.

The three season stretches (20016-2018 in this case) are more important to the NN than the current season. For Cobb, his three-year hit average is .268, while it stands at .332 for this season. The Yankees rookies, Andujar and Torres have their three-year hit averages greatly regressed toward the current mean of .223. It’s that moderation by the NN that prevents one pitcher from dominating the list.

Altuve is very consistent, with a .306 hit average for 2018 and for 2016-2018. That’s why he’s often #1 on the list. He’s 2 for 10 with a double and a home run against Porcello, with one strikeout. That includes the post-season. Ronald Torreyes is the consensus first choice, but if you pick him, make sure he’s starting.

Matt Kemp at Coors is always a good choice. He now has the third most visiting at bats at the park.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com https://ift.tt/2xDTnxj