Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.349 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Alex Cobb.
0.323 — Jed Lowrie batting against Matt Moore.
0.320 — Amed Rosario batting against Alex Cobb.
0.317 — Manny Machado batting against Jason Vargas.
0.312 — Albert Almora batting against Zach Eflin.
0.311 — Adrian Gonzalez batting against Alex Cobb.
0.310 — Adam Jones batting against Jason Vargas.
0.309 — Matt Kemp batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.303 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Matt Moore.
0.303 — Scooter Gennett batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.300 — Jean Segura batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.298 — J.D. Martinez batting against Artie Lewicki.
0.297 — Brandon Nimmo batting against Alex Cobb.
0.297 — Miguel Andujar batting against Marco Estrada.
0.293 — Luis Guillorme batting against Alex Cobb.
0.293 — Marcus Semien batting against Matt Moore.
0.288 — Nolan Arenado batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.285 — Corey Dickerson batting against Ross Stripling.
0.285 — Jay Bruce batting against Alex Cobb.
0.284 — Javier Baez batting against Zach Eflin.
0.284 — Danny Valencia batting against Jason Vargas.
0.281 — Chad Pinder batting against Matt Moore.
0.280 — Dustin Fowler batting against Matt Moore.
0.280 — Michael Conforto batting against Alex Cobb.
0.280 — Mark Trumbo batting against Jason Vargas.
0.280 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.280 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Artie Lewicki.

It would be a good day to pick a batter against either Alex Cobb or Matt Moore. There is a double header today between the White Sox and the Twins, so make sure you check you’re picking the correct game.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.303, 0.738 — Scooter Gennett batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.300, 0.737 — Jean Segura batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.312, 0.737 — Albert Almora batting against Zach Eflin.
0.309, 0.736 — Matt Kemp batting against Joe Musgrove.
0.349, 0.731 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Alex Cobb.
0.261, 0.730 — Jose Altuve batting against James Paxton.
0.298, 0.722 — J.D. Martinez batting against Artie Lewicki.
0.317, 0.719 — Manny Machado batting against Jason Vargas.
0.278, 0.717 — Nick Castellanos batting against Steven Wright.
0.310, 0.715 — Adam Jones batting against Jason Vargas.
0.288, 0.715 — Nolan Arenado batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.323, 0.713 — Jed Lowrie batting against Matt Moore.
0.280, 0.712 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.278, 0.712 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.275, 0.711 — Eddie Rosario batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.285, 0.708 — Corey Dickerson batting against Ross Stripling.
0.266, 0.708 — Eddie Rosario batting against Reynaldo Lopez.
0.280, 0.705 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Artie Lewicki.
0.329, 0.705 — Juan Lagares batting against Alex Cobb.
0.275, 0.705 — Freddie Freeman batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.261, 0.705 — Michael Brantley batting against Junior Guerra.
0.274, 0.705 — Dee Gordon batting against Dallas Keuchel.
0.278, 0.703 — Nick Markakis batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.272, 0.702 — Jose Abreu batting against Zack Littell.
0.275, 0.702 — Jon Jay batting against Andrew Heaney.
0.269, 0.701 — Jose Abreu batting against Fernando Romero.

Gennett comes out on top once again in the NN. Asdrubal Cabrera is the consensus first choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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