Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.355 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.319 — Manny Machado batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.317 — Nolan Arenado batting against Sal Romano.
0.315 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.312 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Sal Romano.
0.311 — Jose Altuve batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.311 — Adam Jones batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.308 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Sal Romano.
0.305 — Joey Votto batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.301 — Gerardo Parra batting against Sal Romano.
0.299 — Matt Kemp batting against Trevor Williams.
0.297 — Jose Peraza batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.291 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.289 — Eddie Rosario batting against Hector Santiago.
0.286 — J.D. Martinez batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.285 — Mike Trout batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.284 — Jed Lowrie batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.283 — Jose Martinez batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.283 — Michael Brantley batting against Chase Anderson.
0.283 — Danny Valencia batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.282 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.282 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.282 — Tucker Barnhart batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.281 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Sal Romano.
0.281 — Corey Dickerson batting against Caleb Ferguson.

It’s a match made in heaven for the number one slot as Gennett owns a high hit average, and Gray is well above average as well.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.355, 0.761 — Scooter Gennett batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.311, 0.755 — Jose Altuve batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.312, 0.732 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Sal Romano.
0.317, 0.730 — Nolan Arenado batting against Sal Romano.
0.276, 0.729 — Jean Segura batting against Lance McCullers.
0.299, 0.728 — Matt Kemp batting against Trevor Williams.
0.308, 0.728 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Sal Romano.
0.319, 0.722 — Manny Machado batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.315, 0.720 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Ian Kennedy.
0.286, 0.719 — J.D. Martinez batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.283, 0.719 — Michael Brantley batting against Chase Anderson.
0.289, 0.718 — Eddie Rosario batting against Hector Santiago.
0.311, 0.717 — Adam Jones batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.280, 0.716 — Nick Castellanos batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.301, 0.713 — Gerardo Parra batting against Sal Romano.
0.279, 0.708 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Wade LeBlanc.
0.280, 0.706 — Freddie Freeman batting against Miguel Diaz.
0.281, 0.706 — Corey Dickerson batting against Caleb Ferguson.
0.305, 0.705 — Joey Votto batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.263, 0.703 — Albert Almora batting against Aaron Nola.
0.269, 0.702 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Blaine Hardy.
0.283, 0.702 — Jose Martinez batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.282, 0.702 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.264, 0.699 — Jose Ramirez batting against Chase Anderson.
0.279, 0.698 — Nick Markakis batting against Miguel Diaz.

Gennett is the unanimous first choice, with Nolan Arenado the consensus second choice.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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