Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.332 — Jose Altuve batting against Mike Minor.
0.325 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Fiers.
0.307 — Matt Kemp batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.300 — Jose Ramirez batting against Michael Fiers.
0.293 — Jose Martinez batting against Luis Castillo.
0.291 — Eddie Rosario batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.291 — Odubel Herrera batting against Brent Suter.
0.290 — Francisco Lindor batting against Michael Fiers.
0.288 — Jon Jay batting against Chad Bettis.
0.286 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Mike Minor.
0.285 — J.D. Martinez batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.280 — Kevin Pillar batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.278 — Nick Castellanos batting against Michael Clevinger.
0.277 — Erik Gonzalez batting against Michael Fiers.
0.277 — Scooter Gennett batting against Michael Wacha.
0.277 — Matt M Duffy batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.275 — Jed Lowrie batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.274 — Teoscar Hernandez batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.274 — Freddie Freeman batting against Alex Wood.
0.274 — Albert Almora batting against Nick Kingham.
0.274 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Luis Castillo.
0.272 — Miguel Andujar batting against Steven Matz.
0.272 — Nolan Arenado batting against Matt D Koch.
0.270 — Nick Markakis batting against Alex Wood.
0.270 — Gerardo Parra batting against Matt D Koch.

Altuve versus Minor is a great match-up for extending a streak. Both are high hit, low walk players, so most of their OBP (for and against) is based on hits. Altuve is 3 for 6 against Minor in his career.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.332, 0.767 — Jose Altuve batting against Mike Minor.
0.325, 0.743 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Fiers.
0.307, 0.738 — Matt Kemp batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.277, 0.728 — Scooter Gennett batting against Michael Wacha.
0.291, 0.722 — Eddie Rosario batting against Tyler Skaggs.
0.252, 0.720 — Jean Segura batting against Blake Snell.
0.300, 0.720 — Jose Ramirez batting against Michael Fiers.
0.285, 0.716 — J.D. Martinez batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.293, 0.714 — Jose Martinez batting against Luis Castillo.
0.288, 0.712 — Jon Jay batting against Chad Bettis.
0.278, 0.710 — Nick Castellanos batting against Michael Clevinger.
0.274, 0.710 — Albert Almora batting against Nick Kingham.
0.272, 0.707 — Nolan Arenado batting against Matt D Koch.
0.291, 0.706 — Odubel Herrera batting against Brent Suter.
0.265, 0.706 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Matt D Koch.
0.270, 0.705 — Gerardo Parra batting against Matt D Koch.
0.286, 0.705 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Mike Minor.
0.277, 0.705 — Matt M Duffy batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.262, 0.700 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt D Koch.
0.274, 0.700 — Freddie Freeman batting against Alex Wood.
0.264, 0.699 — Corey Dickerson batting against Jon Lester.
0.290, 0.696 — Francisco Lindor batting against Michael Fiers.
0.266, 0.696 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.257, 0.694 — Jose Abreu batting against David Price.
0.263, 0.693 — Starlin Castro batting against Tyson Ross.

The two systems agree on 1-2-3 today. Brantley is only 2 for 11 versus Fiers, but never struck out against him.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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