Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2018, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

I have been asked to expand the list to the top 25 players for an econometric project.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.314 — Freddie Freeman batting against Clayton Richard.
0.312 — Nick Markakis batting against Clayton Richard.
0.304 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Michael Fiers.
0.302 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.298 — Miguel Andujar batting against Michael Fiers.
0.287 — Brandon Crawford batting against Zachary Godley.
0.286 — Gleyber Torres batting against Michael Fiers.
0.285 — Buster Posey batting against Zachary Godley.
0.281 — Ozzie Albies batting against Clayton Richard.
0.281 — Ender Inciarte batting against Clayton Richard.
0.279 — Austin Romine batting against Michael Fiers.
0.274 — Nick Castellanos batting against Domingo German.
0.274 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Clayton Richard.
0.271 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Zachary Godley.
0.270 — Jon Jay batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.267 — Didi Gregorius batting against Michael Fiers.
0.267 — Brandon Drury batting against Michael Fiers.
0.267 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Drew VerHagen.
0.265 — Dansby Swanson batting against Clayton Richard.
0.265 — Aaron Judge batting against Michael Fiers.
0.264 — Tyler Flowers batting against Clayton Richard.
0.264 — Mike Trout batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.264 — Preston Tucker batting against Clayton Richard.
0.262 — Joe Panik batting against Zachary Godley.
0.261 — Ryan Flaherty batting against Clayton Richard.
0.261 — Jesse Thomas Biddle batting against Clayton Richard.
0.261 — David Peralta batting against Derek Holland.

There are only five games today, which makes for slim pickings. On top of that, the Yankees and Tigers play a double header, so if you pick someone in those games you’ll lock in your pick at one PM without knowing the 7 PM lineup.

Here is how the NN with Park ranks the players:

0.314, 0.729 — Freddie Freeman batting against Clayton Richard.
0.304, 0.722 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Michael Fiers.
0.312, 0.720 — Nick Markakis batting against Clayton Richard.
0.302, 0.719 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.274, 0.714 — Nick Castellanos batting against Domingo German.
0.285, 0.705 — Buster Posey batting against Zachary Godley.
0.267, 0.703 — Ronald Torreyes batting against Drew VerHagen.
0.251, 0.701 — Nick Castellanos batting against Luis Severino.
0.298, 0.697 — Miguel Andujar batting against Michael Fiers.
0.287, 0.696 — Brandon Crawford batting against Zachary Godley.
0.270, 0.694 — Jon Jay batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.281, 0.694 — Ender Inciarte batting against Clayton Richard.
0.281, 0.685 — Ozzie Albies batting against Clayton Richard.
0.286, 0.681 — Gleyber Torres batting against Michael Fiers.
0.259, 0.681 — Whit Merrifield batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.260, 0.678 — Miguel Andujar batting against Drew VerHagen.
0.261, 0.677 — David Peralta batting against Derek Holland.
0.243, 0.676 — Eric Hosmer batting against Julio Teheran.
0.274, 0.676 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Clayton Richard.
0.271, 0.675 — Gorkys Hernandez batting against Zachary Godley.
0.267, 0.672 — Didi Gregorius batting against Michael Fiers.
0.279, 0.671 — Austin Romine batting against Michael Fiers.
0.264, 0.669 — Mike Trout batting against Daniel Duffy.
0.262, 0.668 — Joe Panik batting against Zachary Godley.
0.264, 0.662 — Tyler Flowers batting against Clayton Richard.
0.252, 0.662 — Austin Jackson batting against Zachary Godley.

Freeman is 4 for 9 career against Richard with only one strikeout. Nick Markakis, the consensus second pick, is 3 for 8 with one K and a sacrifice fly.

Remember, your best pick will fail about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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